FORM ON THE PITCH EQUALS CASH IN THE TILLS

Last updated : 30 March 2004 By editor
From the Independent.

Fans of Manchester United have had to endure a string of disappointments from the domestic champions this year, and the club's shareholders are braced for some of the same today when the company announces its half-year results.

The club's trading period under review will be the first for which Mr Kenyon has been absent, and investors and analysts alike will be looking for clues that reveal just what Mr Kenyon's management bequest will prove to be.

Certainly the City is braced for some pretty ordinary numbers from today's results. Andrew Lee, an analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, is expecting sales down by 1.2 per cent to £91.5m for the six months to the end of January, with pre-tax profits ahead £1.6m to £21.9m.

However, with a stadium redeveloped to the highest standards and shortly to be extended to a 75,000 capacity, no debt and £28.6m in the bank, it seems hard to argue that the Kenyon years were anything other than a resounding success.

Yet a more lasting legacy, both on and off the field, of Mr Kenyon's transfer dealings could prove to be the impact of David Beckham's sale to Real Madrid last summer.

The midfield star was central to the club's popularity in the Far East and North America. These are the two areas Mr Gill must look to for much of the company's future commercial success if he is to replicate his predecessor's impressive growth achievements. Over the past five full years, Man Utd's turnover has risen from £110.6m to £173m.

One of the most important drivers of growth during Mr Kenyon's reign as chief executive was from media rights, but here the boom in revenues seems to have peaked.

In the company's last full-year results, media rights were shown to be up 8 per cent to £56.2m. UK domestic coverage equalled £33.6m while the European Champions League accounted for £17m. Mr Gill, however, may not be able to rely on the strength of media rights in the way Mr Kenyon did.

Research from Andrew Lee of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein says: "Failure to reach the European Champions League quarter finals or beyond this year will impact second half income and profits. A finishing position of third in the FA Premiership this year would also detrimentally impact profits next year, which will already be lower on a like-for-like basis due to the different structure of the new TV rights deal next year compared with the current stepped deal structure."

Those fans who regularly pay to turn up at Old Trafford have already started to express concern that the club is paying out too much in dividends and not enough in squad strengthening, especially in the face of the challenge to its dominance from Chelsea and Arsenal.

Mr Kenyon may well emerge as having been the scorer of Man Utd's more straightforward commercial goals while Mr Gill is left to try to finish off some rather more complex moves.