‘Malcolm Glazer's takeover proposals have been rejected twice by the Manchester United board; the supporters have hanged him in effigy from the Stretford End; even the Irish investors, who would be big financial winners from a takeover, are giving lukewarm signals.
‘But the American has not given up. All the signs are that he will return with a slightly revamped offer once his advisers have completed their inspection of United's books that began this week.
‘There is one indicator that will give Glazer's camp encouragement and alarm many United supporters: the share price refuses to fall. It hovers where it was last Friday, the day United's directors said they were "unlikely" to support Glazers' plans.
‘The message in the stubborn 270p price is this: stock market professionals think there is still a reasonable chance of United being taken over at 300p or more. If Glazer had been properly defeated, one would expect to see it sink below 250p, maybe 220p.
‘After all, it is not as if there is a queue of alternative bidders with skins thick enough to brave fans' hostility. If Glazer is dispatched, the display of fan power at Old Trafford may have made United immune to takeover for years.
‘It is also apparent that Glazer and his son Joel, who is fronting the offer, have not given up hope of winning a recommendation for their proposal from the United board. For the time being the high-risk option of a hostile bid does not seem likely.
‘So why does Glazer think he still has a chance of reversing the board's opposition? For all the bold language in last Friday's statement, the directors shifted on one key issue: Glazer was granted access to United's books even though his business plan was branded "aggressive" and potentially "damaging". Similar words were used by the board in November to refuse Glazer's request for due diligence. The U-turn was explained in the statement: "The board believes that . . . a majority of shareholders would want the board to permit its [the proposal's] development."
‘For "a majority" read JP McManus and John Magnier, whose Cubic Expression investment vehicle has a 29.1% stake. In effect, the board thinks McManus and Magnier would want the books opened. That, presumably, is based on more than a hunch, even though it is understood the Irish were not formally asked for a view.
‘Magnier and McManus still hold the balance of power but there is an understandable fear of them being painted as wishing to sell United behind the backs of the board and the fans.
‘Irish neutrality remains Glazer's biggest problem. He would love them to turn some heat on the board but he is fighting a lone battle. The real test of that neutrality may come only if United's share price starts to fall or Glazer threatens to walk away. At that point sitting on the fence becomes an expensive business.’